Baltimore Ravens signal caller Lamar Jackson put together one of the most groundbreaking seasons in NFL history in 2019.
Jackson expectedly flashed with his legs, but he was also every bit as dominant throwing the football. His leap as a passer from his rookie season to Year 2 was thrilling to watch unfold, and he was rightfully awarded unanimous MVP honors when all was said and done.
However, analytics will tell you that the 23-year-old superstar will regress to the mean in 2020.
This take is scorching and it further proves why so many NFL fans hate analytics. This thinking is flawed in that it compares gunslingers like Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes taking a step back after throwing for 45 and 50 touchdowns, respectively.
Insinuating that Jackson will throw for 18 TDs next season is maddening. We're not even saying that 36 passing scores will be the norm for the former No. 32 overall pick, but come on. His production is going to decrease by 50%? Get out of here.
Jackson notched those numbers in his age-22 season, his second in the NFL. He's not going to fall off a cliff from a statistical perspective after just one offseason.
Comparing the regression of QBs that threw for 11 and 14 more scores in their best statistical seasons to Jackson makes no sense. We say that knowing he's not nearly as talented of a passer as Rodgers and Mahomes.
Somebody keep the receipts of the first tweet for when Jackson eclipses 18 passing touchdowns with ease in 2020.