Noah Syndergaard's Stunning Tommy John Surgery Gives Braves Clearer Leg up in NL East

The baseball world was rocked today with the sudden announcement that Noah Syndergaard would be sidelined until 2021 after it was determined he needed Tommy John surgery. There was no prior warning for this injury, especially with the entire sports world currently on pause, and now the Mets have a difficult problem to solve when the MLB season eventually resumes.

When projections for the MLB season were first released, many had the Mets in contention for the NL East division title, mainly behind the strength of their pitching. Even with all of their bullpen issues in 2019, a rotation lead by Jacob DeGrom, Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman would be enough to give any division rival fits. Now with Sydergaard out of the picture for quite some time, it gives the Atlanta Braves a straight shot to the top of the division.

New York Mets starter Noah Syndergaard has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery in the near future, sources tell ESPN. The procedure will keep him out until at earliest April 2021 and likely into the summer months.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 24, 2020

Keep in mind, despite Sydergaard's inflated 4.28 ERA last season, he still struck out over 200 hitters and went 10-8 in 32 starts. He was due to return to form this year, and there are not many in the MLB that can replicate his flamethrowing capabilities. The Mets must now lean on veterans like Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello to close the gap, and that simply is not going to be enough.

The Braves have more firepower on offense as well as a solid rotation led by Mike Soroka, Mike Foltynewicz, Max Fried, and the newly-acquired Cole Hamels.

If you replace all projected Syndergaard innings with Wacha innings, it costs the Mets 3-4 WAR. Here are the NL East team fWAR projections by Fangraphs Depth Charts before Thor's injury:

Mets 44.7
Nats 44.5
Braves 43.2
Phils 37.9

To state the obvious, this is a HUGE blow.
— Austin Reach (@braves_stats) March 24, 2020

In a division as tight as the NL East, any loss for these teams will shift the dynamic. With the Mets losing one of their key starters and the Braves already entering the season as favorites to win the division, there should be no excuse for Atlanta to not walk away with the NL East.